Home > Research > Agent-Based Simulation for Control of Influenza Infection in a Hospital (Nguyen 2011)

Agent-Based Simulation for Control of Influenza Infection
in a Hospital (Nguyen 2011)

Our research approach is using agent-based simulation to study intervention strategies on epidemic of influenza, including avian influenza (H5N1), 2009 swine-origin influenza (H1N1) and seasonal influenza. We have two conducted two researches on efficiency evaluation of control measures on avian influenza and one research on control of influenza in hospital. Our researches' summary are described as below.

Recent outbreak of avian influenza A (H5N1) in poultry throughout Asia (including South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and China) have made a major impact on not only health care system but also poultry industry. In Vietnam, an outbreak of avian influenza affected thirty three out of sixty four cities and provinces, leading to the forced killing of nearly 1.2 million poultry in January 2005 which resulted in a direct loss of approximately 0.1 percentage points of GDP. We have estimated transmission rate of avian influenza in poultry, based on data of global poultry population and distribution published Vietnamese Government, using basic SIR mathematical model. Based on the estimated global transmission rate, we have developed a basic model of simulation using agent-based modeling to study the basic features of the epidemic in poultry and analyze potential effective countermeasures to control the outbreak of avian influenza in poultry. The simulation results implied a combination of culling 10% of infected poultry, 50% of preventive vaccinating and limiting transport of poultry, poultry products when 1% of the population were reported infectious could keep the disease under control and halt the infection process within 65 days. The total countermeasure could significantly reduce industrial loss and control cost for an avian influenza outbreak in domestic poultry.

Fig 1. Data fitting and SIR curve for countermeasure of culling infected agents

Nosocomial infections occur worldwide and remain an important issue for management of health-care institutions. It represents major source of morbidity, mortality for hospitalized patients. Influenza A virus is among the most severe and a frequent cause of hospital- acquired viral respiratory illness and infects persons in all age groups, especially in patients older than 65 years and children. We have built an agent-based simulation model to study the impact of infection control policies on nosocomial influenza infection. We applied the simulation of influenza infection within a hospital in several scenarios of infection control and vaccine campaign. The simulation results implied that infection control plays a significant role in protecting health care worker from nosocomial influenza infection. The simulation results have validated an epidemiological belief in nosocomial influenza transmission that health care workers, visitors are the source of infection route of nosocomial influenza transmission. The findings emphasized the benefit of vaccination for hospital staff and patients; and the effectiveness of a total nosocomial infection control. The simulation model provides an educational tool for validating epidemiological beliefs and studying impact of infection control measures on nosocomial influenza.

Fig 2. Comparison of number of infected patients and health care workers in 4 scenarios

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