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Home > Research > A Simulation Model for Analyzing Medical Cooperation of Daytime Community Healthcare (Maya 2012)

A Simulation Model for Analyzing Medical Cooperation of Daytime Community Healthcare (Maya 2012)

According to OECD report on Health, Measuring Health Care, the current system of medical service in Japanese is encountering the problems that the excessive number of sickbeds and over long average length of hospital stay. With the improvement of the fifth Medical Law reform, it is mandatory for dividing the medical cooperation system into 4 kinds of diseases and 5 projects according to the promotion of Medical Cooperation Critical Pass. Depending on revolution, the overall numbers of sickbeds were taken as a given. And reasonable medical resource arrangement got more significant concern. To take an observation of patients' action and estimate the burden of hospital, we propose a technique to simulate the whole processes of daytime community health care and build up a system for evaluating the actual medical cooperation system. As a result, we apply this model to a real second medical area as a case study, and finally, analyze the impact on cooperation network of hospitals of the whole target area after enforcement of the policy in the model. SOARS is used for constructing this model.

Tomokazu Maya, Master of Engineering, 2012

Details

According to OECD report on Health, Measuring Health Care, the current system of medical service in Japanese is encountering the problems that the excessive number of sickbeds and over long average length of hospital stay.

The current state resulted from the reorganization of medical system back to World War Two. With the development of medical institutions from 1960s, the overall numbers of sickbed were increased 300 thousand per ten years. Until 1990, the peak numbers of sickbed had reached 1.27million. The numbers of sickbed were also leveling off from that time. Given decreasing birthrate and aging of the population in Japan, and the rapidly advancement of medical technology at the same time, the average length of hospital stay, especially for the elderly patients, increased sharply until the end of 1990s in accordance with the increment of sickbeds. Considering the elderly was easy to get several diseases at the same time, patients always needed many specific treatments from different hospital because the unique hospital may lack of medical facilities to deal with all types of disease. However, there was no Medical Cooperation Critical Pass, which aimed to decrease the number of hospital transfer for patient at that time. As a result, the setting a treatment plan is difficult and medical resource was wasted because of frequent hospital transfer.

With the promotion of Medical Cooperation Critical Pass by the the fifth Medical Law reform,medical cooperation system including 4 kinds of diseases and 5 projects was developed. Depending on revolution, the overall numbers of sickbeds were taken as a given. And reasonable medical resource arrangement got more significant concern. In this research, to take an observation of patients' action and estimate the burden of hospital, we propose a technique to simulate the whole processes of daytime community health care and build up a system for evaluating the actual medical cooperation system. By applying the system into a real Second Medical Area as a case study, we analyzed the effect for the whole local area in medical category by leading some medical policy into the model.

In the validation part, we tried to prove the incidence rate of patient per day in simulation result could fit up with the statistic in reality. Besides, we successfully denied the divergence of definition and calculation method between statistic field and simulation field, which was proposed by some specialists. Through one year for adjustment of the model, we achieved the approximate rate of sickbed utilization from simulation result. Since the model had been successfully validated to able to reflect the normal medical treatment process in daytime, scenario analysis was carried out based on the model.

As a result, hospitalization action of patient in normal medical treatment can be correctly reflected. Moreover, the simulation result successfully approximate to statistic data from the target Second Medical Area. So we can claim that model which is constructed depending on our estimation is reasonable.

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